Global air cargo demand, measured in terms of cargo tonne kilometers (CTKs*), increased by 1.9% year-on-year in September 2022 (international demand up 1.6%). Capacity (available cargo tonne kilometers, ACTKs) increased by 12.1% year-on-year to September 2022 (international capacity up 11.0%). Capacity growth is mainly attributable to international bellyhold capacity, which increased by 31.5% year-on-year as airlines ramped up operations to meet demand during the peak summer travel season in the northern hemisphere.
Changes in key indicators of the air cargo operating environment: In September, both the manufacturing output PMI (49.7) and the new export orders PMI (47.7) improved slightly from the previous month, however, they were still below the 50th Rongxu line, indicating that the annual rate of decline in global manufacturing production and exports, although slowing down, is still continuing to decline; in August, global cross-border trade contracted for five consecutive months, down 3.8% year-on-year, indicating that the global macroeconomic environment cooled; in September, the annual rate of consumer price inflation in the United States stabilized at 3.7%, unchanged from August. European and Japanese consumer price inflation slowed by 1.0 and 0.2 percentage points to 4.9% and 3.0%, respectively.In September, the average price of jet fuel was $131.0 per barrel, up 43.1% from May 2023 prices. Recovering some of the increased costs from the September surcharge, air cargo earnings increased for the first time since November 2022.
Willie Walsh, IATA's Chairman of the Board, said: 'Despite falling trade volumes and high jet fuel prices, air cargo maintained modest growth (1.9%) in September, highlighting the value of air cargo. With key export orders and manufacturing PMIs moving in a positive direction, we are cautiously optimistic about the dynamics of the year-end season."
Air Asia Pacific's September 2023 air cargo volume was up 7.7% year-on-year from the same period in 2022. This is a significant improvement from August (up 4.6%). The region's airlines benefited from growth in three key trade lanes: Europe-Asia (up 9.6%), Middle East-Asia (up 7.0%) and Africa-Asia (up 12.8%). Year-on-year, September 2022, the region's airlines saw a 30.5% increase in available capacity, attributable to increased bellyhold capacity from a recovery in the passenger business.
North American airlines were the weakest performers in September, with cargo volumes down 2.2%. This was down from August (down 1.4%). While the North America-Asia trade lane saw a narrower decline (-1.8% in September from -4.3% in August), the North America-Europe market stabilized its decline at -2.5% for the second consecutive month. Operators in the region did not benefit. Year-on-year, September 2022, capacity was up 0.2%.
European carriers' September air cargo volumes were down 1.5% year-on-year in the same month of 2022. It was down from August (down 0.6%). Carriers in the region were impacted by a further contraction in the European inland market (-5.7% in September vs. -5.2% in August). Gains from the expansion of the Middle East-Europe trade lane (+3.3% in September vs. +0.5% in August) partially offset the decline in inland Europe.Capacity grew by 4.7% year-on-year in September.
Middle East carriers had the strongest September 2023 performance, with cargo volumes up 2.5% year-on-year. This was an improvement on the previous month's performance (up 1.3%). Carriers in the region benefited from growth in the Middle East-Asia market (up 7.0%) and the Middle East-Europe market (up 3.3%). capacity grew 16.1% year-on-year in September.
Latin American carriers' cargo volumes increased by 2.3% year-on-year 2022 September. Significantly lower than the previous month (up 6.2%). 14.4% year-on-year capacity growth in September.
African carriers saw air cargo volumes fall 0.1% in September 2023, despite strong demand growth of 12.8% on the Africa-Asia route. Improved performance from August (down 3.5%). 2.7% year-on-year capacity growth in September.
